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POST-SHANGHAI ETH CRASH

Updated: Jun 8, 2023

- Pre-Shanghai On-Chain Data

- On-Chain Data Analysis period: 13 April - 25 April

- Ethereum's Withdrawal process

- Ethereum Withdrawals Math

- Shanghai upgrade Price action

- Why ETH crashed?









Pre-Shanghai On-Chain data

Deposits: Inflow of ETH ( Eth being staked)

Principal: Staked ETH being withdrawn -> FULL WITHDRAWAL

Rewards: Only Staking rewards being withdrawn -> PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL


From April 13 to April 25 the outflow of ETH from exchanges was greater than the inflow.


Slot visualization



On-Chain data Pre-Shanghai

Data retrieved from the blog post :

Total Staked ETH locked in Beacon Chain Deposit Contract: 16,268,809

Total Active Validator: 508280

Ether price at 8:57 pm on 12 February 2023 = 1525.44 USD

Potential Sell pressure OF ETH Post-Shanghai: 25 Billion USD


Withdrawal Process

EIP-4895 was designed in a way that only 16 validators get to exit per block in an Epoch.

Total number of validators that can exit per epoch :

16 Validators * 32 blocks = 512 Validators per Epoch

3 stage process

Exit Queue - Validators have to submit a voluntary exit

Withdrawable Delay - After leaving the exit queue, Validators have to wait for 256 Epochs = 27 hours.

Round Robin Sweep = The Consensus mechanism sweeps off validators to the Execution layer. Validators can freely withdraw their ETH now.


Withdrawals Math

Total Validators that can exit an Epoch: 512 ( 16 validators * 32 blocks)

Total Number of Epochs required to exit all validators: 992 Epochs (508280 validators /512 per epoch)

Time per Epoch: 6.4 Minutes (12 Seconds * 32 blocks)

Total time taken: 6348.8 Minutes (6.4 minutes * 992 Epochs)

Days: ± 4.41 Days

Time set for Shanghai upgrade: 13 April 6:27 AM

Eth Withdrawals Ending period : (13 April 6:27 AM + 4.41 days) = 17 April 4:24 PM


Shanghai Upgrade Price Action


Shanghai's ETH peak was at 2133 USD



Price Action




ETH Withdrawals price action Timeline


WHY ETH CRASHED POST WITHDRAWAL PERIOD?

The Main reason behind Ethereum's poor price action is Stakers began to dispose of their ETH stake. This sudden influx of sell pressure hammered ETH's price down indefinitely. This can be proven as Dune Analytics On-chain data clearly reflects the movement of ETH in and out of exchanges.


Comparison period: 13 April 2023 - 25 April 2023

The bar chart above depicts that the volume of ETH being withdrawn was far greater than the volume of ETH being deposited in Crypto exchanges for Staking. Shanghai upgrade was the relief point for stakers that locked their ETH in the beacon chain deposit contract for

> 2 years. Most of them began to take profits either by selling the entire stake and rewards.

The grey area represents the potential sell pressure as mentioned above.








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